- WE'RE JUST RANDOM SPECKS OF DUST IN A TORNADO TO THE MARKETS .......
- CHARTISTS MUST PUT ALL BIAS ASIDE AND LET THE CHARTS DO THE TALKING OR WE'LL SEE ONLY WHAT WE WANT TO SEE
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Monday, 23 April 2012

Another Bear Flag

I have to be away all day on Tuesday, so this is just a quick post to cover the action on SPX today. On the 15min chart the bounce was just above the low two weeks ago and is forming a bear flag. There was no negative RSI divergence at the low so I'm not expecting a strong bounce. There should be strong resistance in the 1374 area which 'd expect to hold and declining resistance from the high, currently in the 1382 area, should be very solid resistance tomorrow. I'm not expecting declining resistance to be touched tomorrow but if it is, and then breaks, then that would be a strong signal that the retracement may have ended earlier than I expected:
The other chart I'll post tonight is the 60min SPX chart showing the possible sloping H&S that may have formed there, and the bounce today was at the neckline of that pattern. I'm inclined to take horizontal neckline H&S patterns more seriously than sloping ones, but it's something to bear in mind:
Something to consider looking at these H&S patterns, with the best ones I'm looking at on Dow and SPXEW, is that a neckline is also a strong support level. On a break below the neckline, and neither Dow or SPXEW tested that neckline today, the target is a high probability one, and that would suggest a much deeper retracement than everyone expects. The flipside of that however is that the necklines may hold, in which case SPX may make a fairly marginal new low or test 1340 and finish the retracement there. Worth bearing in mind.

I'm out all day, but will be back doing my morning post as normal on Wednesday morning.

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