- WE'RE JUST RANDOM SPECKS OF DUST IN A TORNADO TO THE MARKETS .......
- CHARTISTS MUST PUT ALL BIAS ASIDE AND LET THE CHARTS DO THE TALKING OR WE'LL SEE ONLY WHAT WE WANT TO SEE
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Tuesday, 20 December 2011

Distant Sleigh Bells

No post yesterday as my futures and forex charting package was down. The question today is whether Santa is going to show up for a rally this year, as we're running out of time now. There is definitely some reason to think that we might have made a significant low yesterday, as ES put in a slightly lower low, on positive divergence, and we now have a very nice double or W bottom setup there which would target 1255 ES on a break over 1225:
There is a similar setup on GBPUSD, though that's a bit bigger:
EURUSD looks weaker, as you'd expect really, but there's definitely room for more bounce within the greater move down:
My concern is that there is an obvious downside target on SPX here, and we haven't reached it yet. That target is rising support from the October low in the 1190-5 area, and a touch and reversal there would confirm that a triangle is forming on the SPX daily chart:
On the SPX 15min chart we have a clear declining channel, with channel resistance in the 1218 area at the moment:
There's a similar declining channel on RUT, with channel resistance in the 726 area at the moment:
For direction today I'm watching the short term trendlines on the ES 15min chart. A break above declining resistance from 1225 would look bullish, and a break below rising support from yesterday's low, currently at 1206, would suggest another move down:
Is there room for another big move down here? Well there certainly is on the Vix, which is the strangest chart that I am watching at the moment. Here it is on the daily chart with bollinger bands, showing a setup I'd normally associate with topping out after a move up on equities. In effect the inverse correlation between Vix and equities seems to have reversed at the moment, which is strange indeed:
What I'd like to see here is a break of resistance on equities that should then be followed by a modest Santa rally. That would set up what should be some very nice short opportunities in the New Year. That looks promising at the moment but equities need a boost into the open. I'll be watching that ES 15min chart for direction.

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