- WE'RE JUST RANDOM SPECKS OF DUST IN A TORNADO TO THE MARKETS .......
- CHARTISTS MUST PUT ALL BIAS ASIDE AND LET THE CHARTS DO THE TALKING OR WE'LL SEE ONLY WHAT WE WANT TO SEE
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Thursday, 30 June 2011

Three White Soldiers

The very strong advance so far this week has delivered a three white soldiers candlestick pattern, which should indicate further upside to come. I'm expecting this move to be into the SPX 1340 - 50 area to make the right shoulder on the large H&S pattern that is forming, but it could be the start of a new bull wave up. Hopefully we'll see a helpful shorter-term pattern develop to indicate which way this will go. As we stand now SPX has reached the top of the daily bollinger bands and I'm expecting to see consolidation or a modest reversal here, subject to the greek vote two hours before the open today:
On the 60min charts ES has kept on going after breaking 1300 yesterday, though it is trapped between two trendlines that would suggest an absolute maximum upside of 1309 before ES breaks up or down. I've marked in the significant resistance level at 1311.50:
Since yesterday morning's pre-market high NQ has been stalled below 2300. NQ and TF have been underperforming ES since then which suggests reversal or consolidation here. There is a nice short-term support trendline on NQ that is now at 2297, so very shortly NQ will either break that support trendline or break through 2300. If it breaks up then my next upside target on the resistance trendline would be in the 2325 area:
TF has also stalled below yesterday morning's pre-market highs. There's more elbow room within the TF trendlines however and my next upside trendline targets are currently in the 827 and 835 areas. Trendline support is at 817:
Oil is within the 94-6 resistance zone I mentioned yesterday and silver has now reached the broken support trendline and is stalled there. I haven't posted the copper chart much lately and that's because it hasn't been doing much. but after still not doing much while SPX moved up hard until the open yesterday, it has since broken up hard. It's looking short term overbought with some negative divergence on the 60min RSI, so I'm looking for some reversal / consolidation here. After that I have a tentative trendline target in the 440s:
EURUSD may be the big story of the day today with the greek vote, and it is now close to declining resistance in the 1.4535 area. I'm expecting a reversal there, though we may not get one of course. If it breaks up I'd be expecting a move to the 1.47 area and there's resistance there on EUR and also significant support in that area on DX. DX has now made the rising wedge target I have been watching this week:
As I said before, I'm looking for some reversal or consolidation at this level but this is a news-heavy close to the week and I may not get it. I'm watching the short term ES trendlines and resistance at 1311.50 for direction.

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