- WE'RE JUST RANDOM SPECKS OF DUST IN A TORNADO TO THE MARKETS .......
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Thursday, 14 April 2011

Wobbling Bulls

The market hasn't moved down much overnight, but three things have happened that have shaken my confidence that we're going to bounce soon. Firstly ES has broken down through the strong support level at 1305 that held yesterday and Tuesday. I have a declining channel on ES that may now take it down well below 1300 and there is a possible H&S forming as well:
Secondly copper dropped to my 426 target that I posted yesterday morning and has dropped below it to 424.55. That isn't a big overshoot, but it may well be a significant one, and copper is on the verge of a major support break here. If copper futures go below 420 and close there then my next target would be in the 360-70 area, which is a long way down and would augur very badly for equities over the next few weeks. Here's the big picture on copper on the five year daily chart:
The importance of this level is a bit clearer on the one year chart:
Thirdly, of the other key indicators I'm also concerned about what I'm seeing on EURUSD, which broke above the rising wedge on the daily chart the other day. I said last week that this was either a break up or an overthrow, and EURUSD had held the broken trendline as support until last night. Overnight however it has broken back down into the wedge, increasing the probability that the break up was an overthrow. There is good resistance turned support at 1.428 and wedge support is at 1.423. A break of wedge support would be very bearish:
I'm watching bonds to see whether TLT can break declining resistance from the high last August. There's no cause for alarm yet but resistance isn't far above:
If copper and EURUSD break down, and bonds break up, the outlook on the bull side will start to look very doubtful. There are however some very good support levels on SPX that the bears will have to get through before the outlook turns very bearish and the first is at 1300 SPX. After that there is also very good support at 1285 SPX with the lower trendline of the main SPX rising channel in the 1280 - 1285 area as well. If we see a close below that, then we would then be likely to see the March lows broken in my view:
Looking at the NQ daily chart a diamond top may be forming. If this continues to form then I'd expect to chop around for a few more days into the end of the diamond, but a break down from a diamond top would point to the 2000 NQ area. Definitely one to watch:
I was looking through a lot of individual stocks yesterday and saw quite a number of leading stocks, AAPL particularly, that are at key support levels. I'll post some of those tomorrow if I have space on the post. This does underline however the importance of this area for the bull case. A failure here would be extremely significant. I'm leaning long for today, but without much conviction.

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