- WE'RE JUST RANDOM SPECKS OF DUST IN A TORNADO TO THE MARKETS .......
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Tuesday, 12 April 2011

Are We There Yet?

I was cautious about the copper situation yesterday morning and copper has duly broken down towards the strong support level and potential IHS neckline at 438. That would be a 50% retrace, more or less, of the last move up from 422 and I'm expecting it to hold. If it folds the overall situation will start to look much more bearish:
Until that happens what we're seeing is still in the normal range of equity pullbacks in my view. I mentioned a couple of times last week that the daily 20 SMA on SPX was an obvious target for any pullback. That's at 1310.41 today, and 2296.94 on NDX, though support there doesn't tend to be as good as on SPX. Here's the SPX daily chart:
The short term support trendline I was using on NQ broke down overnight but the current retracement fits well into a larger declining channel. The obvious target today on NQ is the 2290 area, for support on that channel and the potential HS neckline there. Here it is on the NQ 60min chart:
On ES I have potential rising channel support at 1310 and another potential HS neckline at 1300. If this is just a pullback then 1300 should hold:
EURUSD has stalled the last two days. Looking at the rising wedge it has either broken up or is overthrowing. I'm leaning towards a break up, as the upper channel trendline for the rising wedge to turn into a rising channel is already established. Long term declining resistance has been broken with confidence and I'm no longer regarding that as resistance
AUDUSD has also broken long term rising resistance, but is still within the four year rising wedge:
The strong support trendline on oil was damaged in the retracement last night and oil longs should get more cautious here. If the trendline breaks we could see a retest of 100:
I'm still seeing this pullback as a retracement within a larger uptrend, and if so, there's a good chance that the retracement will conclude today. Even if there's more coming, we should see a decent bounce from the strong support levels just below. It did cross my mind yesterday as I was chided for not just saying JBTFD in the post at slope yesterday that the last time I'd been told that was as I was warning of major trendline breaks at the February high. Hopefully that wasn't a topping signal. :-)

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