- WE'RE JUST RANDOM SPECKS OF DUST IN A TORNADO TO THE MARKETS .......
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Thursday, 3 March 2011

Another Bounce from Support

As expected SPX bounced yesterday and made a very nice reversal from the main support trendline on the daily chart:
Pug's primary count is that we have started the new wave up and is seeing a move above 1332.09 SPX as confirmation of this count. That fits, give or take, with a breach of declining resistance from the recent high, and if we see that, I think we'll be looking reasonably safe on the long side again. I have declining resistance on ES currently at 1334:
The Nasdaq chart looks similar with declining resistance at 2360, and the IHS on copper is looking fully formed this morning and ready to break up through the neckline just under 453. Altogether there's a good chance of bullish breaks up soon and I'll be watching those levels. Here's the IHS on copper again:
EURUSD has been stalled near 1.385 for a couple of days, but looks ready to make a move up to test the declining channel trendline in the 1.3975 area. This is a very important test, as at the same time USD should test the main support trendline there. If EURUSD breaks up I'll be expecting a move to the 1.48 area. If it reverses strongly, the next downside channel target is near 1.10 for EURUSD:
Silver is showing some signs of weakness at the moment, and we could see a significant retracement without a hit of my next upside target at 35.7. Longs should be on the lookout for a short term reversal:
I always watch the bond charts with interest, as they can say interesting things about market direction. I've been watching JNK, the junk bonds ETF, crawl up the support trendline from the March 2009 low for some months now and it finally seems to be breaking down from support. Negative divergence on the daily RSI has been building up since the start of 2010 and this might be an interesting short here:
It looks like we may see a large gap up today, and we might see SPX just gap and go from here. The obvious target on ES is declining resistance in the 1334 area, and if that is broken then the bulls should be back in control. Until it is broken the risk of another swing down still looks high.

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