- WE'RE JUST RANDOM SPECKS OF DUST IN A TORNADO TO THE MARKETS .......
- CHARTISTS MUST PUT ALL BIAS ASIDE AND LET THE CHARTS DO THE TALKING OR WE'LL SEE ONLY WHAT WE WANT TO SEE
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Friday, 25 February 2011

Testing Resistance

Yesterday's action looks quite a bit like a short term bottom at least, and overnight ES and NQ have risen to test the first real resistance levels that need to be taken out if we are to see further upside. ES formed a gently declining channel over the last day or so, and has broken up through that. It is still within the strong resistance zone at 1310-3 however, and a break over 1313 is needed to open the path to higher levels:
NQ was stronger than ES yesterday, which is generally bullish, and formed a channel that was rising rather than declining. It is testing resistance on that channel at the moment and a break above would be bullish:
Copper is reaching the next upside target at 439 at the upper trendline of the broadening descending wedge. A break above would be very bullish, and would suggest a move to the next resistance level at 450. A small rising wedge has formed on the way back up though, so it may fail at resistance. An hourly close over 439 would be bullish:
30yr treasuries have been rallying in recent days, which is bearish for equities, but after a test of strong resistance in the 122 area the recent support trendline has broken, so short term treasuries look likely to retrace:
EURUSD hasn't been an indicator for equities in recent days, and hasn't yet reached my next upside target slightly under 1.40, but a rising wedge has formed and now broken down in recent days, so EURUSD looks likely to retrace here. I've marked the likely targets on the chart:
Overall a mixed picture this morning and I'm leaning cautiously bearish until resistance is broken with confidence on ES, NQ and copper. If these all break up, then I will be leaning strongly bullish. Copper is one to watch this morning as it has been a good lead indicator recently. If it breaks up any retracement from resistance on equities is likely to be short-lived. 

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