- WE'RE JUST RANDOM SPECKS OF DUST IN A TORNADO TO THE MARKETS .......
- CHARTISTS MUST PUT ALL BIAS ASIDE AND LET THE CHARTS DO THE TALKING OR WE'LL SEE ONLY WHAT WE WANT TO SEE
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Monday, 21 February 2011

Mixed Signals

Friday's close was bad for bears on ES, as it convincingly broke the resistance trendline of the main ES daily rising wedge. This might still be an overthrow, but that would have to be in the context of a major top here, and it seems unlikely that we would see that top four months before the end of QE2.I'm very sorry indeed to lose this trendline, as I was hoping it would help signal that major top as and when it arrives:
Silver has obviously broken up hard, which is bullish, and EURUSD has also broken up, which is bullish. It has reversed for the moment at what would have been the resistance trendline for the recent falling wedge to become a declining channel. However as the wedge overthrew at the low, that's not a trendline that seems likely to hold. I'm expecting a short-term retracement here and then a move to test main declining resistance in the 1.40 area:
I posted the falling wedge on oil breaking up the other day, and it has rallied much of the way to the wedge target. Again, it looks likely to retrace slightly here but after that a move to the wedge target in the 91.60 area seems likely:
So far, so bullish, but equities are still looking weak here. ES looks stronger than NQ, and has continued to make higher highs and higher lows, but is currently back below the support trendline that broke last week:
NQ has been making lower highs and lower lows and is now considerably below the support trendline that broke last week. I'm waiting to see whether it makes a lower low than Friday's low today, and if so, that will look weak:
Copper is the standout indicator here from the ones that I generally watch. It bounced off a main support trendline last week, and has formed a sloppy triangle since. If it breaks up from the triangle, then it too will turn bullish, but key support is just below, and if that breaks then copper will looks very bearish:
All in all it's hard to say which way this is heading, and I'm not leaning either bullish or bearish today. There is definitely some technical weakness on equities here, but this might just be a consolidation.

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