- WE'RE JUST RANDOM SPECKS OF DUST IN A TORNADO TO THE MARKETS .......
- CHARTISTS MUST PUT ALL BIAS ASIDE AND LET THE CHARTS DO THE TALKING OR WE'LL SEE ONLY WHAT WE WANT TO SEE
- This blog has a copy of all header posts that I publish anywhere, so that those interested in seeing what my thoughts are on the markets can find them easily.
- I will be answering questions and responding to comments, so feel free to respond to any posts and I will see your comment even if it is not on the most recent post.
- If you're interested in seeing any intraday charts I post, I do that on twitter, and my twitter handle is @shjackcharts.
- The charts in the posts are as large as I can practically make them. if you would like to look at one more closely, click on it, and the link will take you to a larger version at screencast. If you click on that again, you will get a full page version, and can use the resizing function on your browser to enlarge parts of interest further.

Tuesday, 15 February 2011

Has the Euro bottomed?

Yesterday and overnight were so dull that there's not really much to add about equities today. IWM made the upside target on the small rising wedge and we might see a retracement today into the 81.5 area:
Copper and silver made new highs yesterday, though gold didn't which was interesting. The most interesting thing that may be happening at the moment though is the possible low on EURUSD. I noted yesterday that EURUSD broke through the lower trendline of the falling wedge. That wasn't followed through and so it raises the significant possibility that this is a wedge overthrow after an ABC correction. An IHS could now be forming with the neckline at 1.350-1.355. There's a nice writeup on this as a possible reversal area for EURUSD from a blogger friend of mine at his blog MarketLetters:
I know almost everyone seems to be expecting EURUSD to go much lower here but I have very serious doubts about that. I have two big active perfect channels on EURUSD, and the last high wasn't at a significant level on either. If this has been an ABC correction then I'd expect the real test to be in the 1.40 area, though to get there might break the main support trendline on USD. I'm watching EURUSD carefully here and at the moment I'm leaning long.Here's the EURUSD daily chart with the two major channels marked, one rising and the larger one falling:
AUDUSD hasn't made my target trendline but I'm wondering now whether it will, as it bounced at a level yesterday which established a possible channel support trendline that is exactly parallel to the current resistance trendline. That may therefore have also been a significant low on AUDUSD:
John Murphy posted an interesting chart the other day, and it was a chart of the SPXEW, the version of SPX that gives equal weight to the components. John Murphy made the point that the SPXEW, which gives much lower weights to financials particularly, is now almost back to the 2007 highs. There were a couple of interesting things to note about the four year chart, mainly that SPXEW has a perfect rising channel from the March 2009 low just like SPX, and that it made a lower high when SPX peaked in October 2007:
Looking at the move from the July 2010 low on the hourly chart I was surprised to see that there is no rising wedge on SPXEW. Instead we have another perfect rising channel, though we have been seeing a thorough test of the mid-channel line:
Food for thought. I'm leaning short without great conviction today, but we're still just below main rising wedge resistance on ES, and IWM looks due for some retracement here.

No comments:

Post a comment