- WE'RE JUST RANDOM SPECKS OF DUST IN A TORNADO TO THE MARKETS .......
- CHARTISTS MUST PUT ALL BIAS ASIDE AND LET THE CHARTS DO THE TALKING OR WE'LL SEE ONLY WHAT WE WANT TO SEE
- This blog has a copy of all header posts that I publish anywhere, so that those interested in seeing what my thoughts are on the markets can find them easily.
- I will be answering questions and responding to comments, so feel free to respond to any posts and I will see your comment even if it is not on the most recent post.
- If you're interested in seeing any intraday charts I post, I do that on twitter, and my twitter handle is @shjackcharts.
- The charts in the posts are as large as I can practically make them. if you would like to look at one more closely, click on it, and the link will take you to a larger version at screencast. If you click on that again, you will get a full page version, and can use the resizing function on your browser to enlarge parts of interest further.

Thursday, 27 January 2011

Is the Euro topping?

Just a short post today as I've had a late start and I have a lot on, so I'll just have a close look at EURUSD, ES and NQ. First EURUSD, which has been frustrating in recent weeks because despite showing some signs of topping, it persists in making new highs. EURUSD is of particular importance because while it continues to rise, it's going to be tough to see much retracement on equities, and the best chance to see that retracement will be when it turns.

So where are we on EURUSD? Well as I said it continues to make new highs, and has made new highs overnight, but it has been breaking down into a succession of shallower rising support trendlines. This is something that ES did in the run-up to the April 2010 high last year and is a signal that an important interim high may well be approaching. I've done a broad view 60min chart on EURUSD to show also that it has also entered an important resistance zone, which would be a likely place to see that reversal:
On ES there's now an interesting setup that has me leaning somewhat towards weakness today. There's a five day rising channel, and a rising support trendline / wedge within that channel that has broken support. It may also be forming a reversal H&S. If we fall today the target and support will be in the 1282 - 1284, which would be a good long entry for another move up. If that lower channel trendline breaks that would look very bearish:
NQ looks unequivocally bullish this morning, and is outperforming ES considerably, so the possibility exists that NQ could make the upside targets there without ES breaking up from the rising channel. The upside targets are 2333 for the rectangle and 2339 for the falling wedge, and that would be close to a double-top or new high for NQ which might then be made within the current short-term broadening ascending wedge. A break below the support trendline would be bearish and that support trendline is currently at 2317. If we do see weakness today before NQ makes the upside targets then there's a possibility that we might get another long entry near the rectangle top at 2300, as we did yesterday:
I'm seeing the current action on equities as part of a topping process, but there's still room to rise within that process, and my short-term bias is still bullish with a keen eye on the exit until we see some further signs of weakness. Seeing a top too early can be very expensive and we should remember that the second mouse gets the cheese. :-)

No comments:

Post a comment