- WE'RE JUST RANDOM SPECKS OF DUST IN A TORNADO TO THE MARKETS .......
- CHARTISTS MUST PUT ALL BIAS ASIDE AND LET THE CHARTS DO THE TALKING OR WE'LL SEE ONLY WHAT WE WANT TO SEE
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Wednesday, 12 January 2011

Has EURUSD Bottomed?

I'm seeing bullish breaks everywhere this morning, and I'm going to break my usual limit of five charts and post a sixth today. I was expressing serious doubts about the very short term bear case yesterday morning and my doubts were well founded. On ES an IHS has formed and has started to play out. The target is 1290, which is also my target for upper trendline of the big rising wedge on the daily chart:
The falling wedge on copper that I posted yesterday morning has broken up, and has already progressed too far for it to become a declining channel. The target is the previous high just below 450:
I mentioned yesterday that the falling wedge on oil had already broken up, and it is now most of the way to the target which is also the previous high just over 92.50:
What's really alarming me this morning though is what I'm seeing on forex. I've posted the falling wedge on GBPUSD in recent days, and that too has broken up. The target is the previous high at 1.63, though if it is evolving into a declining channel the target would be 1.59:
Many thanks to toad37 for pointing out the possible IHS forming on EURUSD yesterday morning. Since then a second alternative IHS has formed and both have broken up. The targets are 1.312 and 1.317 respectively and I've marked them both on the chart:
This is a bad place for a significant EURUSD low. I mentioned my analyst friend predicting an imminent major low for EURUSD in the 1.29 area the other day, and he could be right. Looking at the EURUSD daily chart I have a possible rising channel from the summer low, and very clear positive divergence on the daily RSI. If EURUSD has bottomed any looming equities correction is going to be fighting against a declining USD, which will be heavy going:

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