- WE'RE JUST RANDOM SPECKS OF DUST IN A TORNADO TO THE MARKETS .......
- CHARTISTS MUST PUT ALL BIAS ASIDE AND LET THE CHARTS DO THE TALKING OR WE'LL SEE ONLY WHAT WE WANT TO SEE
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Tuesday, 21 December 2010

Upside Risks

I saw an alarming rising channel on EURUSD last night, and I'm watching that very carefully this morning. An IHS of surpassing ugliness may be forming within it:

Equities have been trading sideways to up for the last few days, while EURUSD has been moving down. If EURUSD reverses decisively and rises 400 odd pips from here to the top of the channel then we might well see that end, and equities move up quite a bit. One to watch and I am reminded looking at it that my ES daily rising wedge upper trendline was never hit. That would be in the 1270 area now.

On ES itself I'm seeing a gentle rising channel with support at 1241 and resistance at 1249 at the time of writing. That looks fairly solid and may well define the trading range today:

IWM broke the previous high with confidence yesterday and my upside target trendline for IWM now looks likely to be hit. That target is in the 79.5 area today:


I've been having a look at copper this morning, and have a couple of observations to make. On the 60min chart there is a strong trendline running through the rise from 360, and if that is hit again then the upside target would be in the 430 area. I've drawn two trendlines below to show immediate and slightly longer term support:

On the weekly chart there is an obvious target for copper in the 440 area and that is pretty much the final major resistance trendline on the copper chart. if that is broken then the upside looks wide open, though I have drawn in a green trendline that would then be the trendline to watch.

I'm still very doubtful about seeing much downside on equities this week.

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