- WE'RE JUST RANDOM SPECKS OF DUST IN A TORNADO TO THE MARKETS .......
- CHARTISTS MUST PUT ALL BIAS ASIDE AND LET THE CHARTS DO THE TALKING OR WE'LL SEE ONLY WHAT WE WANT TO SEE
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Monday, 13 December 2010

Ending Diagonals

I don't know whether this is the top but I think it might well be. I'm not expecting to see any serious falls before January in any case but I think this might well be as high as SPX and Nasdaq go. After not seeing much in the way of channels or patterns on the latest spike up we finally have some very nice rising wedges or ending diagonals from the last low. These are generally a fifth wave formation so for these to appear at a point where we're looking for the final move up is significant. Here it is on ES:

Here it is on Nasdaq:


Everything looks right for a top here. Silver has made a top at the right place and copper is in the right area too. Numerous 'risk-on' markets have failed to make new highs. EEM particularly appears to have topped in November which is interesting as it doesn't generally show negative divergence at tops, though it usually shows positive divergence at bottoms. Other 'risk-on' markets like Brazil that do generally show negative divergence at tops are also showing it now though, so EEM is just giving additional confirmation:


SPX:Vix has been in a rising channel since June and has made a high in the right area:


Most importantly of all USD has been consolidating and looks ready for another move up. A rising channel has formed on the daily chart that looks solid:


Pug's calling a likely wave 1 top here, and I'm joining him. We might see a marginal new high within the rising wedges today but what I'm expecting now is that we see a first wave down this week, see a second wave retracement back up over the Xmas period, and start the third wave of A in early January.

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