- WE'RE JUST RANDOM SPECKS OF DUST IN A TORNADO TO THE MARKETS .......
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Tuesday, 12 October 2010

US Dollar Retracement?

USD had a good day yesterday and has risen hard overnight, and GBPUSD has broken the recent rising channel. I don't like the level for a bounce here particularly, but it looks as though may be retracing here regardless. That being the case though, there is still unfinished business on the downside on my view, so I'm only expecting a retracement rather than a major reversal. Looking at the USD chart I'm liking the 38.2% retracement target at 79.62 best:


ES has been weak overnight, and there too I think we're due a modest retracement. SPX has been shifting from a steep rising channel to a shallower one and if support on the steeper rising channel at 1154 SPX can be broken, then I'm seeing the next channel support level at 1140 SPX. I've marked in a retest of the IHS neckline as an alternate lower target but that's already been retested twice, and I'm not seeing any technical  reason yet to think that it might be retested a third time:


Something interesting did happen yesterday to relieve the leaden chop of the last few days, and that was the Vix gapping down and closing well below the bollinger band. That could be setting up an new Vix sell signal. The close below the bollinger band is only the first day though, we need need a move back within the band on the second day and then a higher close on the third day:


There is some reason to think that a significant reversal might be building here. The move on SPX into a shallower rising channel is a topping move that we saw on SPX in March / April but I'm doubtful about seeing a big reversal in the near future and more sideways chop seems more likely for the next couple of weeks at least. I'll be watching SPX though, and if the main rising channel is broken then things will start to look more interesting.

Apologies for just posting three charts today but I've got a lot on offline this week.

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