- WE'RE JUST RANDOM SPECKS OF DUST IN A TORNADO TO THE MARKETS .......
- CHARTISTS MUST PUT ALL BIAS ASIDE AND LET THE CHARTS DO THE TALKING OR WE'LL SEE ONLY WHAT WE WANT TO SEE
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Tuesday, 26 October 2010

Losing Steam I Think

There's been some talk of how much the current wave up resembles the wave up between February and April and they do look similar. Here's a chart of how I'm seeing SPX on the 60min chart:


As you can see, the initial rising channel broke down into a shallower rising channel and I think it may be about to break down into an even shallower rising channel (marked in purple). This would be a topping pattern similar to the one we saw in April. Here's an SPX chart that I posted on April 27th.


We might still make new highs from here, but this wave up is weakening, and if USD continues to bounce, I'm expecting it to break down in the next few days. For today I have a couple of downside targets on ES if we see more early weakness and they are 1178 for an alternate rising channel and 1167 to complete the head on a possible H&S pattern:


I was watching EURUSD yesterday to see whether the current rising channel would break down and it broke down overnight. I have a large declining channel on EURUSD and if it holds then I'd expect to see a fall to just over 1.36 next:


I have a similar but even shallower declining channel established on AUDUSD since the momentary touch of parity with USD a few days ago. I'm seeing the next target in the 96.4 area:

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