- This blog has a copy of all header posts that I publish anywhere, so that those interested in seeing what my thoughts are on the markets can find them easily.
- I will be answering questions and responding to comments, so feel free to respond to any posts and I will see your comment even if it is not on the most recent post.
- If you're interested in seeing any intraday charts I post, I do that on twitter, and my twitter handle is @shjackcharts.
- The charts in the posts are as large as I can practically make them. if you would like to look at one more closely, click on it, and the link will take you to a larger version at screencast. If you click on that again, you will get a full page version, and can use the resizing function on your browser to enlarge parts of interest further.

Friday, 1 October 2010

Just a Little Further I Think

I've been trying to keep these posts down to five charts per day as I'm cutting back on the time I spend preparing them, and also because Tim was muttering the other day about header posts that could be seen from space after I did a morning post with seven charts.

Some days that requires some hard choices and this is one of those days, as the market action over the last day has been very interesting on a number of fronts. One of the charts that hasn't made the cut today was the oil chart, which made my target 1.60 rise yesterday, and has run up a further 1.25 to 80.85 at the time of writing. I'm seeing a possible broadening ascending wedge on that and if so I'm expecting to see resistance in the 81.5 area. You can easily see what I'm seeing by looking at yesterday's oil chart and taking the upper trendline from the last two highs.

I've not had much to work with on ES and SPX lately in terms of channels or patterns so I was delighted to see that the low yesterday gave me a gently rising channel. The next upside target on ES is in the 1158 if reached today. I'm regarding this as a topping pattern as I think we're close to a significant interim top, but for a number of reasons I don't think we've seen the top yet, so I think there is a good chance that we will see that upper trendline hit in the next couple of days:

On EEM we almost saw a hit of the top trendline of the rising wedge that I posted yesterday, but not quite, and that sums up where I think we are at the moment. We've almost seen a rise high enough to hit the next significant interim top, but not quite. I have an almost identical rising wedge on GYX, the industrial metals index, and on the daily chart we have seen a rise to almost the top of the wedge but again, we're not quite there yet:

I was very pleased with my little rising channel on the Vix 30min chart yesterday, and we saw a perfect touch and reversal off the upper channel trendline at the SPX low yesterday. This should be a very useful channel for calling SPX short term highs and lows over the next couple of days:

One thing that's been troubling me about seeing an interim top here has been the copper chart where we have a very nicely formed rising wedge that has now very clearly broken up beyond the stage where the break could be a wedge overthrow. The rising wedge target is 398, and I have a strong rising resistance trendline slightly above there in the 405 - 410 area. I think that the wedge target looks likely to be made, and once we get that far, we may well make the target above, which is the key upside target for copper in my view:

EURUSD pulled back slightly yesterday but has since made another high, and my next wedge trendline target is in the 1.39 to 1.395 area:

It might be that we'll drop from here without further highs, but I'm not seeing that at the moment. There are some more upside targets that should be hit before we make the next significant interim top and I think we may well hit those in the next two or three days. I'm thinking in terms of seeing that on SPX in the 1165 - 1170 area.

I noticed some of the Gann guys were talking about October 4th/5th as a possible significant reversal area and that could well be right.

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