- WE'RE JUST RANDOM SPECKS OF DUST IN A TORNADO TO THE MARKETS .......
- CHARTISTS MUST PUT ALL BIAS ASIDE AND LET THE CHARTS DO THE TALKING OR WE'LL SEE ONLY WHAT WE WANT TO SEE
- This blog has a copy of all header posts that I publish anywhere, so that those interested in seeing what my thoughts are on the markets can find them easily.
- I will be answering questions and responding to comments, so feel free to respond to any posts and I will see your comment even if it is not on the most recent post.
- If you're interested in seeing any intraday charts I post, I do that on twitter, and my twitter handle is @shjackcharts.
- The charts in the posts are as large as I can practically make them. if you would like to look at one more closely, click on it, and the link will take you to a larger version at screencast. If you click on that again, you will get a full page version, and can use the resizing function on your browser to enlarge parts of interest further.

Friday, 3 September 2010

Possible short term swing high today

I've been looking carefully at various charts and I would be sugarcoating it to suggest that the bears aren't in significant trouble here. This move up from 1037 ES has been very powerful and there is every reason to think it may go higher.

Looking at my SPX:VIX daily chart we failed to break the rising wedge from the May low, and the obvious next wedge target would take us to the 1130 - 1150 area on SPX, which would be little short of disaster for the bear case as the main declining channel from the April high would be convincingly broken:


Here's the main declining channel on SPX. I'm seeing the upper trendline in the 1106 SPX area today and that is close enough that it could be tested today:


In the short term I was saying yesterday morning that I was expecting sideways to up chop yesterday and today. We had that yesterday and a small broadening ascending wedge formed on the ES 5min over the last day that could take us up to test that main declining trendline today:


I'm still favoring more upside on ES and downside on USD today. EURUSD has been slowly rising towards my target in the 1.292 area, though there is an argument for a reversal at 1.29:


The bears aren't entirely out of the game yet though, at least not while the flight to safety trades are still looking bullish. We've seen some pullbacks in long treasuries and yen this week, but they're both building rectangles which despite being called rectangle tops or bottoms are generally continuation patterns. Here's the rectangle on USDJPY:


Precious metals are also looking very strong and silver looks as though it may be making a major breakout. If yesterday's gains are sustained then we will have a major break up and once silver rises past $20, the obvious target is $30:


I'm expecting to see a short term swing high today, though looking at the spike up while I've been writing I may of course be mistaken. If I'm right though, we're close to the high today which I'd expect to see in the 1104.5 to 1107.5 area. After that I'm expecting to see a retracement early next week into the 1070 area.

No comments:

Post a comment