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Wednesday, 1 September 2010

Bullish action overnight

The overnight action wasn't encouraging for bears last night and ES retested the upper trendline of the ES declining channel from the August high:


Over the last day ES has formed a rising wedge from the low. That is bearish, but only weakly so as these often evolve into rising channels or broadening ascending wedges. They also break upwards about 30% of the time of course:


EURUSD broke up from the second declining channel overnight, and while it has found rising trendline resistance at 1.28, the obvious upside target here is 1.292 as I mentioned last Thursday when EURUSD broke up from the first declining channel.


Copper, as ever in recent weeks is much stronger than SPX and has broken the August high. There are two patterns building at the moment on copper. For the first the obvious target is 352.5 to put in the top of the right shoulder on a big H&S pattern. If that breaks then the most likely target becomes the 390 area for the top trendline of a possible megaphone and that is well above the current 2010 high for copper of course:


I'm expecting a big move today, though the direction is uncertain, and I'm leaning bullish on the overnight action so far. What really matters here though is the SPX levels during market hours. If SPX opens above or breaks above 1057 SPX, then I'm expecting a move to the 1070 area. If that doesn't hold then the next obvious resistance level is 1080.

If we don't see a break of 1057 SPX, then we're just putting in the right shoulder on the possible continuation H&S pattern that I mentioned yesterday morning, and in that case I would expect the 1040 SPX level to be retested and most likely broken today:


Declining resistance from the April high is now in the 1105 - 1110 SPX area, and that is the key line in the sand for the bear case over the next few weeks. That is most unlikely to be threatened by anything that happens today, but it will be the level to watch if there is a strong rally off the multiple tests of the 1040 SPX level in the last few days.

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