- WE'RE JUST RANDOM SPECKS OF DUST IN A TORNADO TO THE MARKETS .......
- CHARTISTS MUST PUT ALL BIAS ASIDE AND LET THE CHARTS DO THE TALKING OR WE'LL SEE ONLY WHAT WE WANT TO SEE
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Friday, 13 August 2010

No Real Target Hits Yet

I've read that after a trend day it's normal to see two to five days of retracement unless the market is really trending strongly. ES closed up from the low yesterday but SPX was down on the day and the opening gap wasn't quite filled though it came very close, as was the case on Tuesday as well. We've now had three days of unfilled down gaps and a failure to rally after a trend day on Wednesday. That looks very weak.

Of the main retracement targets that I listed on Tuesday, nothing has yet hit target though GBPUSD is now very close, and if SPX opens  in the 1072 area then it will have hit the lower trendline of the possible rising channel. Here's the SPX daily chart:


Here's the GBPUSD daily chart, where we may now be seeing a technical hit, though I'd like to see it go a little lower:


As for the others I posted EURUSD is well short, oil has come close and is only 80c short of the 75.15 target as I write. Copper and AUDUSD are both still well short.

Looking through my indicator charts the Vix has met target if this is just a correction:


The gold/silver ratio chart that I used to call the recent top is well short of where I would expect to see it on a real low here though:


The SPX:Vix chart is also well short of where I would expect to see it:


I said on Tuesday that I was expecting to see the low for this move on Monday to Wednesday next week, and I'm still leaning towards that at the moment, as my downside targets have not been hit and and I'm not seeing much to suggest a bottom here yet.

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