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Monday, 2 August 2010

Next rising wedge target at the June high

ES bottomed very close to the 1084.5 ES target that I gave near the high last Tuesday, poking slightly through the bottom of the rising wedge to reach it. Over the weekend declining resistance from that high at 1109 has been broken and a move to the top of the rising wedge, near the level of the June high, now looks likely, though if the strong support level at 1104.5 ES is rebroken with conviction then it would probably be best to abandon ES longs today:


It seems likely that having reached that level we will then see a significant retracement. EURUSD is close to a significant declining resistance level now:


Oil appears to be forming a bearish gartley pattern. The target for the current (and last) leg up within that is in the 82 area, which is also the obvious rising channel target:


Gold broke the lower trendline of the longstanding rising channel last week, but only slightly, and looking at the channel, the low Gold reached fits with an alternate lower channel trendline, so I have altered the rising channel slightly accordingly. Gold still looks an attractive buy here on the basis of that channel, and it will not be an attractive short IMO until that channel is broken convincingly:

UPDATE:

EURUSD and GBPUSD have both hit my targets since writing this as ES hit 1115.50. This may be where USD starts a serious bounce and if so, it may well be that equities will pull back with them. If EURUSD does not make an interim top here then my next target is in the 1.335 area.

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