- WE'RE JUST RANDOM SPECKS OF DUST IN A TORNADO TO THE MARKETS .......
- CHARTISTS MUST PUT ALL BIAS ASIDE AND LET THE CHARTS DO THE TALKING OR WE'LL SEE ONLY WHAT WE WANT TO SEE
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Friday, 13 August 2010

Intraday - Growing Evidence Of a Low

I'm doing a quick intraday update today because I feel that there is growing evidence that we have made the low for this swing down. On the bull scenario that means that we have made a low that will last for quite some time, and on the bear scenario we are bouncing at key support levels to retrace before the next move down. Either way a bounce now looks likely here.

On the SPX 15min chart we have broken a declining channel from the high this week. We still need to move decisively above the small rectangle that has formed, but that now looks likely to my eye, and the rectangle is a predominantly bullish pattern of course:


On the ES chart, I'm calling a hit on the previously notional lower trendline of the ES rising channel that I was proposing early this week. I was encouraged to see that both the ES lows yesterday and today were in line with that trendline which strengthens it:


EURUSD didn't quite make it to my notional lower trendline of a broadening ascending wedge, but has hit an alternate slightly higher, which I've moved up to being my primary lower trendline. EURUSD has only fallen 450 pips of the 500 pips I called for when the rising wedge broke early this week, but close enough I think:


GBPUSD has hit the lower trendline of the broadening ascending wedge, to within a few pips at least so close enough IMO:


Oil has hit the lower trendline of the rising channel having fallen the full $6 from when I predicted this fall early this week:


Copper and AUDUSD have not made my targets for the expected falls, but I'm inclined to view the strong performance from copper as a bullish divergence.

It could be that I'm calling this too early, and there are no certainties in technical analysis, but regardless of whether the bull of bear scenario for the rest of the year wins out, we have now hit some key support levels and that is the obvious place for a bounce at least. The broken declining channel on the SPX 15min suggests that the low for the next few days has most likely already been made.

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