- WE'RE JUST RANDOM SPECKS OF DUST IN A TORNADO TO THE MARKETS .......
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Monday, 26 July 2010

The management regrets ....

.... that the second showing of The Apocalypse planned for the summer may have to be postponed due lack of interest.

We broke 1099 SPX (and ES) on Friday and it seems clear that we are on the way to 1130 SPX to test the June high. We are trickling up slowly towards that target and we may well see it this week. Until we see that tested I'm not expecting to see any major breaks downward and it is more than likely that the strong support level at 1084.5 ES will hold.

I'm also switching my primary scenario to bullish now, as the evidence is piling up that we have already seen the low for 2010, and unless we see some strong evidence to the contrary, then I will be working on the assumption that the trend for the next few months at least will be up. I have a longer term view and rationale for that that I will be writing up and posting in the next few days. It has nothing to do with a genuine recovery or real economic health, and everything to do with our still being in another asset bubble that is likely to expand further before bursting.

In the short term I've been playing around with the angle of the rising channel on ES this morning and am happy that I now have it right despite the lack of a third touch on either side so far to exactly fix the angle of ascent:

As we've now seen a second touch of the upper channel trendline we would normally next see a touch of the lower trendline. We could see that today at a little under 1080 ES, but I would be surprised to see the strong support level at 1084.5 ES broken by much.

Copper too is trickling up towards the obvious short term target just over $326. As and when it reaches it we should see some retracement on copper and most likely on equities too:


Oil is not in a rising channel and I can't see a workable pattern either, but it has established a strong rising support trendline that I would be surprised to see broken in the near future. Support is at $76.75 as I write and rising gently:


One of the few strong indicators that the bear scenario for the summer might not be finished yet is on 30 year treasuries, which are still holding the strong rising support trendline from the breakout in April. I'm expecting this to break in the next few days, and after that happens, I'm expecting a retracement of much or all of the advance from 114:

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