- WE'RE JUST RANDOM SPECKS OF DUST IN A TORNADO TO THE MARKETS .......
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Friday, 9 July 2010

Bonds dropping back towards support

I posted a rectangle on the 30yr Treasuries 60min chart yesterday and that broke downwards yesterday morning. It has since almost played out to the downside target at 26 and is not far above key rising trendline support slightly over 25:


Here's the daily chart showing the strong support trendline as the lower trendline of a rising wedge. A break of this trendline would be a major warning signal that the bear case for the summer was in real trouble so I'm watching this one very carefully:


For EURUSD I've mentioned before that I have a target of 1.28 that must not be broken for the bear case. In the very short term though the action in recent days has resolved into a nice looking rising wedge with a target at 1.248. I'm thinking that a break of the lower trendline will signal a more significant retracement than the one we saw yesterday. As I've been writing this the lower trendline has been tested and bounced hard:


On ES I have a sort of rising channel, inasmuch as I have parallel support and resistance trendlines, but I'm doubtful about seeing a return to the lower trendline in the near future. I am thinking that we'll see some retracement soon though. My preferred ES target is at 1084. but not until next Wednesday so we would need to see at least some retracement first. My ES target is as high as 1096 ES if hit today:


I was reading a lot about Atilla yesterday, and his call last week to go long at 1018 ES was nice work. My calls on Thursday last week for an imminent or interim bottom at 1000 or 990 ES, and the next day for a return to the 1070-1090 area, were also very nicely timed, but the hero of the hour, for my money, is Pug of Pug Stock Market Analysis, who called the day and the level of the low better than anyone else I saw. He has been on fire this week calling the waves up as well.  Pug's one of the analysts I read most days & though he has a subscription service, he publishes his main daily market commentary for free and it is always well worth reading IMO.

Pug's immediate target for this move up is 1085 SPX, which is very close to my best looking target level as well.

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