- WE'RE JUST RANDOM SPECKS OF DUST IN A TORNADO TO THE MARKETS .......
- CHARTISTS MUST PUT ALL BIAS ASIDE AND LET THE CHARTS DO THE TALKING OR WE'LL SEE ONLY WHAT WE WANT TO SEE
- This blog has a copy of all header posts that I publish anywhere, so that those interested in seeing what my thoughts are on the markets can find them easily.
- I will be answering questions and responding to comments, so feel free to respond to any posts and I will see your comment even if it is not on the most recent post.
- If you're interested in seeing any intraday charts I post, I do that on twitter, and my twitter handle is @shjackcharts.
- The charts in the posts are as large as I can practically make them. if you would like to look at one more closely, click on it, and the link will take you to a larger version at screencast. If you click on that again, you will get a full page version, and can use the resizing function on your browser to enlarge parts of interest further.

Thursday, 24 June 2010

Looking for an ES interim low here

Overnight the strong range support level at 1084 was broken, and ES is clearly still trading within the declining channel that I posted yesterday:


We can now see significant and growing positive divergence on the RSI and MACD on the ES 60min chart though, and I'm doubtful about reaching either the next range support level at 1070.5 and the S2 daily pivot also there at 1070.83.

EURUSD broke out of that declining channel yesterday and broke back up into the range above. The same positive divergences that we see on ES can be seen on the EURUSD chart, with EURUSD about a day ahead, which is in itself another very significant positive divergence IMO:


The Vix on the 60min chart broke just above the downtrend resistance trendline I had drawn on it yesterday and then slid down an invisible declining trendline there. After a careful look I've redrawn the original trendline and am happy that it is valid. That is a key line in the sand for today, any break above the line would look very bearish for equities:


We are at the crossroads now in my view. A break much below here and the recent rally will look finished, and a retest of the lows would become high probability. The levels I will be watching today are as follows:
  • ES - Break up with confidence through range resistance at 1084 - Bullish
  • ES - Break up with confidence through the channel upper trendline (currently 1089.5) - Very bullish
  • EURUSD - Break down with confidence through lower range support at 1.2255 - Bearish
  • Vix - Break up with confidence over declining resistance at 28 - Very bearish

No comments:

Post a comment