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Monday, 7 June 2010

Important Declining Trendline on ES

I'm on holiday for a couple of days and I didn't think I'd have an internet connection but it turns out that I do, so I caught some of the action today and saw something that looked interesting enough to be worth posting.

I've been looking for a decline channel or pattern forming from the top, and at the moment I'm not seeing much other than the very large patterns I've posted previously. However I have noticed a very significant looking decline trendline that has been considerably strengthened by action in the last few days, and it is the blue trendline on this ES 60min chart:


At no stage in the last few weeks have we broken away in either direction from this trendline for more than two or three days, which is worth noting,  and we closed on it tonight.

We could be making a short term bottom here. There's definite positive divergence on RSI and MACD on the hourly chart as I've marked, and it may well be that we bounce here. If we break through that trendline overnight though, then the path is open to go considerably lower this week before returning to the trendline again by the end of the week.

EURUSD is also showing some positive divergence, having come very close to the lower trendline of the six month old broadening descending wedge on Sunday night:


Looking through the other USD currency pairs nothing much sprang to the eye in the short term except for a very steep declining channel on AUDUSD. It is so steep that I was wondering how long it could last, but I'll be watching it carefully as on a conviction break of 80, I have my next target for AUDUSD under 70, and a longer term rising wedge target of 62.5:

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