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Monday, 28 June 2010

ES & EURUSD Declining Channels Broken - Rally?

Both the declining channels on ES and EURUSD broke on Friday, and various others including oil, CADUSD, AUDUSD & GBPUSD broke up too. That was a significant show of strength, even if the rally on ES on Friday afternoon was nothing to write home about.

What I'd normally expect to see on ES and EURUSD at a point like this would be a rally, and that is what I'm expecting, and the question in my mind is how far that might go.

Here's the broken declining channel on the ES 60min chart:


Here's the other broken declining channel on the EURUSD 60min chart.


Looking at the main broadening descending wedge on the EURUSD daily chart, I was calling for a return to the top trendline in the 1.28 to 1.30 area when we last hit the lower trendline at 1.1875, and while that sounded like a pretty wild prediction then, if we were to take another two weeks to reach it the top trendline would be at just over 1.28, and from 1.2385 at the time of writing, that no longer looks that far away.

Here's the broadening descending wedge on the EURUSD daily chart:


Looking at the action on EURUSD since the last low, we have what looks like a wave up, then a retracement wave down. In combination they look like A & B waves, forming a bull flag, with the C wave just beginning to take us the rest of the wave to the top trendline of the wedge.

On ES at the same time, we have also had a ninety point wave up followed by an almost seventy point wave down, if those were equivalent A & B waves, and EURUSD is now starting the C wave up, then I'd expect to see that C wave up on ES as well.

So how far could that go?

On ES the last wave up was stopped exactly at the declining trendline from the top and that would be the main resistance level to consider from here on any rally. That would be found just over 1100 on ES, which is also the location of serious range resistance at 1101.5.

If ES can get past that declining resistance, then I could still see SPX riding EURUSD's coat-tails up to near 1150. Here's how that would look on my primary SPX bear scenario:


That's pretty far out on a limb stuff. 1150 SPX looks a long long way from here, and resistance just over 1100 ES looks pretty solid. If that breaks though, then 1150 SPX will be the target I'm expecting to be hit on the next rally.

Arthur Hill & jesterx both mentioned the IHS forming on the RUT. I've had a look at it & maybe. It is pointing to an almost complete retracement of the fall since April from here & I'm having trouble visualizing that in the near future but it is worth bearing in mind:


Updates will be erratic until Thursday as I'm away from home and my internet connection is a bit unreliable.

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