- WE'RE JUST RANDOM SPECKS OF DUST IN A TORNADO TO THE MARKETS .......
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Wednesday, 2 June 2010

Close to ES support now

Another weak and yet indecisive day on equities. The late day breakdown brought ES close to rising channel support, currently at 1058.50 and rising gently. A break of the lower channel line would signal imminent new lows in my opinion but until then the picture still looks hesitantly bullish, though I'd be inclined to disregard the IHS now:


There's little doubt in my mind that the first wave down in equities is finished, but that doesn't mean of course that there needs to be a major retracement before another possible strong wave down. It has been hard to make much sense of action in recent days as there has been little real momentum in either direction. Uptrend support lines and downtrend resistance lines have both been breaking after moves in either direction and apart from the strong move up in GBPUSD, due mainly to an increase in confidence in the UK's prospects with a new coalition government replacing the previous spendthrift labour administration, no clear directions have been established on any of the indices, currencies and commodities that I have been watching.

The CPC daily chart provides good support for the view that the first main wave down has finished with a clear break downwards from the broadening ascending wedge of the last few weeks:


Of the currency pairs that I watch, EURUSD, though still weak as a day old kitten, has been forming a falling wedge that if it breaks upwards (69% probability) would indicate back to 1.26 :


CADUSD and AUDUSD had both established very encouraging rising channels and both broke down from them. CADUSD has since been forming another falling wedge:


All in all the picture looks weakly bullish to me here and I'll be looking for a good long entry near the ES rising channel trendline with a stop not far beyond it. If that trendline holds then we may well see a rise to the other side of the channel in the 1115 to 1120 area.

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