- WE'RE JUST RANDOM SPECKS OF DUST IN A TORNADO TO THE MARKETS .......
- CHARTISTS MUST PUT ALL BIAS ASIDE AND LET THE CHARTS DO THE TALKING OR WE'LL SEE ONLY WHAT WE WANT TO SEE
- This blog has a copy of all header posts that I publish anywhere, so that those interested in seeing what my thoughts are on the markets can find them easily.
- I will be answering questions and responding to comments, so feel free to respond to any posts and I will see your comment even if it is not on the most recent post.
- If you're interested in seeing any intraday charts I post, I do that on twitter, and my twitter handle is @shjackcharts.
- The charts in the posts are as large as I can practically make them. if you would like to look at one more closely, click on it, and the link will take you to a larger version at screencast. If you click on that again, you will get a full page version, and can use the resizing function on your browser to enlarge parts of interest further.

Monday, 17 May 2010

The Red Pill - Initial Downside Targets

The right-angled and ascending broadening formation that I identified on ES last week broke downwards on Friday. That was very significant, and signals that there is most likely more downside coming. Iinitially though, the pattern target is 1109 ES, and these patterns reach target about 68% of the time:


Oil broke down from the rising channel it had been within since August last year. Another signal that we are seeing a significant correction that has not yet finished:


USD is running away to the upside at the moment, and it may be that EURUSD is simply breaking down now, and that no pattern target remains relevant. I am having some trouble reconciling where I see EURUSD now, ie nearing a significant bottom, with where equities seem to be heading, which is very significantly lower.

That said though, I have had a very careful look at the EURUSD weekly chart, and I am still seeing a broadening descending wedge that may provide some support when the lower trendline at 1.208 is reached:


The triangle on GBPUSD last week played out beautifully, and GBPUSD kept falling beyond the triangle target. There appears to be a falling wedge on the weekly chart, and the lower trendline target at 1.426 was reached overnight. It has bounced almost two cents since then, but I'm not convinced that there is a bottom there. Now that we are so close to it, a test of long term support at 1.40 seems likely in the next few weeks:

No comments:

Post a comment