- WE'RE JUST RANDOM SPECKS OF DUST IN A TORNADO TO THE MARKETS .......
- CHARTISTS MUST PUT ALL BIAS ASIDE AND LET THE CHARTS DO THE TALKING OR WE'LL SEE ONLY WHAT WE WANT TO SEE
- This blog has a copy of all header posts that I publish anywhere, so that those interested in seeing what my thoughts are on the markets can find them easily.
- I will be answering questions and responding to comments, so feel free to respond to any posts and I will see your comment even if it is not on the most recent post.
- If you're interested in seeing any intraday charts I post, I do that on twitter, and my twitter handle is @shjackcharts.
- The charts in the posts are as large as I can practically make them. if you would like to look at one more closely, click on it, and the link will take you to a larger version at screencast. If you click on that again, you will get a full page version, and can use the resizing function on your browser to enlarge parts of interest further.

Wednesday, 7 April 2010

Lining Up Matchsticks

I'm on vacation this week but am still keeping half an eye on market action as I have an obsessive personality and watching the markets beats lining up long rows of matchsticks into perfect rows.

On ES we are near the bottom of the main wave 5 channel since Feb 5th. Alternatively this is an extended 3rd wave for the bear count:

For a closeup into the current wave 5 of 5 channel it is looking like this:


Now the question is where this will end. Difficult but the obvious target for a while has been SPX 1229 for the 61.8% fib. Anna & Fujisan are both talking about a hard push up into opex next week and that seems likely.

Given that the lower trendline for the main rising ES channel since Feb 5th is just a short way below, and that I think that channel will now be broken only after the end of this wave up since then, I'm not seeing significant room for downside in the next day or two at least, and before a wave 5 top is made, that downside room would be created only by a strong preceding move up.

Equity shorts should be cautious here.

As for USD we've been seeing some odd action but we haven't seen the decisive break up that would mark an end to the USD wave up since December. More likely that we are looking at a wave 5 ending diagonal that might play out like this:


Good trading everyone & if you aren't long here, remember that cash is a position. Patient bears will be looking out for the end of this 5 of 5 to complete five waves up since the March 2009 low, and signal what should at last be a serious retracement in the traditionally weak May to October period:

When it is time for your vacation, look for travel coupons and save money.

No comments:

Post a comment