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Wednesday, 31 March 2010

USD Uptrend Intact So Far

I was concerned by the EURUSD action yesterday, so I reviewed the USD and primary USD currency pair channels and patterns after hours to see whether any technical damage has been done to the USD uptrend.

So far at least, the answer is no, and USD looks to have been establishing a broad uptrend channel for the current wave up. I have provisionally drawn in the most likely current wave channel which suggests that the recent pullback has probably bottomed:

On EURUSD we have seen a return to near the top of the declining channel.The next downtrend target is now 1.29 if hit the week after Easter and 1.28 if hit two weeks later:

GBPUSD has returned to retest broken fan resistance for a second time. If this retest fails then the next target downwards is in the 1.40 area, where there is very serious long term support. There is a lot of uncertainty over a possible hung parliament in the imminent UK election, and the chance that the current entirely worthless and spendthrift socialist government may stay in power despite their appalling track record. The time looks right for a 1.40 retest here:

The Swiss Franc was one USD currency pair that I was a bit concerned about when I last did a full update a couple of weeks ago, as it had failed to hit the top of the declining channel by a wide margin. It has come close enough this week to count as a hit, and may yet exactly hit the top of the channel on Thursday:

Of all the main USD currency pairs, the Yen has looked the weakest in the last two weeks, with a break of strong fanline support that is also the neckline on a nice looking sloping head and shoulders pattern. This is a correction that is well overdue for the currency of the most profligate and indebted government in the developed world. There has always been an unreal air to me about the Yen as a 'safe haven' currency. The next fanline support is at 105 on JPYUSD and the H&S target is 100:

The two main commodity currency pairs have held up best in this upswing. Of the two the Canadian Dollar is the easy winner, with an intact uptrend channel. The top of that channel is now in the 105 area and it looks likely to get that far, though we may not see much upside until the current USD wave up has peaked:

The Australian Dollar has looked considerably weaker and has formed a broadening descending wedge since USD bottomed. The next target is in the 83 area, but of all the possible shorts here, this looks the weakest to me. Both commodity USD currency pairs look much stronger than all of the others:

There are a couple of things worth adding at the end of this review. Firstly this USD uptrend now clearly appears to be a five wave uptrend sequence, which means that after it ends we should see an abc correction and then in all probability another five wave sequence up. This may only be a rally on USD in the big picture, but it doesn't look ready to finish soon, and it could yet go a lot higher than the 83.5 to 84 that this current wave up should reach.

Secondly, in terms of equities I was predicting a couple of weeks ago that this USD wave up would see either a sharp retracement in equities or sideways chop while it is ongoing. Obviously we've been seeing the sideways chop and it seems likely to me that this will continue for another week or two until the USD peaks. As USD then settles into the likely subsequent abc correction of the move from 74.23 to the 83.5 to 84 area, we should then see the completion of the fifth wave (or extended third wave) in equities of which we are now in a sideways fourth wave. That will bring us close or into the traditionally weak period for equities May to October, and should be the start of the first extended weak period for equities in over a year.

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