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Monday, 13 August 2018

The Wheels On The Bus Go Round and Round

An unsettled open on ES last night with more rumblings from Turkey and lower lows on ES and NQ. I was asked before the open whether I thought there was a serious risk of the wheels coming off on SPX with a 5% or so retracement directly from here, and I replied that I thought that the risk was low, though possible as always.

There are four important support levels below, all shown on the SPX 60min chart. The first is the short term rising wedge support trendline at Friday's low, supported by the daily middle band. As long as that holds the obvious next target is wedge resistance in the 2870 area. If that should break then there is strong established support in the 2800 area, which would also be the 38.2% retracement of the rising wedge. If 2800 was to break that could be a significant bearish break, but there would still be main channel support, currently in the 2765 area.

On the upside resistance is at the the ES weekly pivot at 2842 and the 50 hour MA on SPX, currently at 2845 and resistance so far both on Friday and today, then the open gap from 2853.58 that would need to be filled. After that the way would be clear for SPX to head back to short term wedge resistance and a likely test of the all time high at 2872.87.

Leaning long into that ATH retest until demonstrated otherwise.

Partial Premarket Video from theartofchart.net - Update on ES, NQ:
SPX 60min chart:
We did our monthly public Chart Chat yesterday, and the recording for that is posted on our August Free Webinars page. We are doing our monthly free public FAANG & Key Sectors webinar after the close on Thursday, and if you'd like to see that, you can register on the same page.

Thursday, 9 August 2018

Bull Flag Compression

ES has been compressing for a couple of days now, forming a likely bull flag for the next leg higher. That may have made a low overnight or may have a bit lower to go before the next leg up begins. A break and conversion to support of the current short term high at 2863.75 ES should clear the path to the all time high retest. Partial Premarket Video from theartofchart.net - Update on ES, NQ:
On SPX main channel resistance is now in the 2888 area and may be the target for the next leg up, after which we expect to see a decent retracement with an obvious target at a test of main channel support, currently in the 2765 area but obviously rising.

After that we might see a test of longer term trendline resistance on SPX in the 2950-3000 area to make a more serious high. SPX 60min chart:
Some announcements today. We are doing our monthly free public Chart Chat on Sunday running through the usual 35 to 40 instruments over a very wide range of markets and, if you'd like to attend, you can register for that on our August Free Webinars page. We are also running another Trading Academy Boot Camp soon and that is starting September 4th. The first two were very well received and you can see testimonials from that as you scroll down on our testimonials page. If you're interested in attending you can find out more and register for that on this page here.

In the very short term though we are doing a free public webinar after the close tonight looking at trades on our directional options service Paragon Options, currently up about 12% after just under seven weeks so well on course for the minimum 60% per annum return that we are looking for. If you'd like to attend, you can also register for that on our August Free Webinars page.