- This blog has a copy of all header posts that I publish anywhere, so that those interested in seeing what my thoughts are on the markets can find them easily.
- I will be answering questions and responding to comments, so feel free to respond to any posts and I will see your comment even if it is not on the most recent post.
- If you're interested in seeing any intraday charts I post, I do that on twitter, and my twitter handle is @shjackcharts.
- The charts in the posts are as large as I can practically make them. if you would like to look at one more closely, click on it, and the link will take you to a larger version at screencast. If you click on that again, you will get a full page version, and can use the resizing function on your browser to enlarge parts of interest further.

Tuesday, 21 February 2017

SPX Gaps Through Channel Resistance

SPX didn't quite make the ATH retest I wanted on Friday and delivered it this morning with a gap through channel resistance. Channels don't overthrow so that is a clear resistance break and opens higher targets.  SPX 60min chart:
On the daily chart the retracement on NYMO has opened up some some on the falling channel there and I have a possible resistance trendline in the 2380 area that I'll be watching if SPX pushes higher. Bottom line here is that SPX is on day 8 of a daily upper band ride and there's no obvious reason right now to think that is ending here. SPX daily chart:
The ES support trendline I was looking at this morning has held and I have a possible matching resistance trendline currently in the 2374/5 area. ES Mar 60min chart:
NQ wedge resistance is now in the 5359 area. A possible 60min sell signal is now brewing. NQ Mar 60min chart:
TF has now done the full ATH retest and has made a marginal new ATH. Solid trendline resistance is now in the 1417 area. TF Mar 60min chart:
Looking at the Big Five tickers over the weekend there were three obvious targets above that looked as though they needed to be hit. AAPL needed an ATH retest, done this morning, there was a short term IHS on TSLA that made target this morning, and a triangle is forming on FB that likely delivers an ATH retest there. FB has barely moved this morning so that still looks like unfinished business there, though there are 30% odds that that breaks down of course.

My working assumption at the time of writing is that ES/SPX is trend up today. No sign of weakness so far. If that's right then next decent trendline resistance is in the 2375-80 area and that may be tested today.

Friday, 17 February 2017

A Pearl Cast Before A Swine

I've blocked my latest twitter troll, though apart from the one with very poor english a few weeks ago, I strongly suspect that I've had the same troll on twitter and my blog for a few months now. If I'm right then he has a London IP address and seems to have a lot of time on his hands. Some of you may have been wondering about the posted trade I mentioned to him, as it's rare for me to post these, but I was a bit irritated at the 2015 high with being called a permabear for calling a high there, and with clueless pundits telling me that big retracements wouldn't be allowed by the Fed, so on Tuesday 26th May 2015 I wrote a post helpfully entitled 'On The Road to 1820', with SPX at 2126 at the time, and mentioned that I was short from 2132 ES and was planning to hold it for a 300 handle decline. I cashed that short at 1812 on the morning of Wednesday 20th January 2016 and reviewed it at the end of my post that day called 'The Trend Is Strong In This One'. It was a sweet trade and I considered that my point had been made. Needless to say my troll wasn't impressed, but then it's not possible to impress a troll. On to the markets.

On SPX I still like a retest of the high or marginal new high to make the second high of a small double top to end this move. If we are going to see that we should see that today. A break below yesterday's low at 2338.87 means that retest becomes considerably less likely. If we see a marginal new high today I'd be looking for a likely failure under 2355/6 SPX. SPX 60min chart:
On the daily chart yesterday was the first (albeit only slightly) red candle in a while with NYMO turned more firmly down. If we see a high retest today that would not set up any usable negative divergence on RSI, though it would most likely deliver hourly sell signals of course. SPX daily chart:
On ES we are seeing the rally that I was looking for this morning and I have a small double bottom target in the 2346 area that ES should deliver if it can sustain trade over important resistance at 2343. The falling wedge on RSI is currently testing wedge resistance. ES Mar 60min (pre-market) chart:
On NQ the falling wedge on RSI has already broken up and NQ has come close to an ATH retest this morning. I mentioned yesterday that I was looking for full ATH retests on AMZN and TSLA to seal the high. I'm doubtful about seeing that on TSLA now as TSLA has broken rising megaphone support for this move, but AMZN has just made that new ATH, and I'm looking for a hard fail from a marginal new high there. NQ Mar 60min (pre-market) chart:
TF has also broken the RSI falling wedge and has rallied somewhat, though if a small H&S is forming there then this rally may have a firm cap in the 1400 retest area. TF Mar 60min (pre-market) chart:
If we are going to see the ATH retest on SPX that should be today. Price is still thinking about it and the rest of the day could go either way from here, depending on whether 2343 ES can be converted back to support. We'll see. The RTH markets are closed on Monday so my next post will be on Tuesday morning. Everyone have a great holiday weekend :-)

PS. Stan and I are doing two free webinars next week at theartofchart.net an hour after the closes on Wednesday and Thursday. The first is the Big Five webinar on Wednesday (rescheduled from yesterday) looking at AAPL, AMZN, FB, NFLX & TSLA. We've been doing some really nice work on these the last few months and these are all likely topping out here short term for a strong retracement, so that should be interesting. The second on Thursday is a second webinar on 'Technical Patterns You Can Profit From' following on from the first one in January. As always the TA will be world-class and the subject matter will be interesting so if you'd like to see either of those you can register for one or both on this page here.