- WE'RE JUST RANDOM SPECKS OF DUST IN A TORNADO TO THE MARKETS .......
- CHARTISTS MUST PUT ALL BIAS ASIDE AND LET THE CHARTS DO THE TALKING OR WE'LL SEE ONLY WHAT WE WANT TO SEE
- This blog has a copy of all header posts that I publish anywhere, so that those interested in seeing what my thoughts are on the markets can find them easily.
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Tuesday, 27 June 2017

Nasdaq Support Breaks

I'm leading with the NDX and NQ charts this morning as they are driving the equities bus here. I posted my morning video for Daily Video Subscribers at theartofchart.net on twitter before the open and if you missed that you can see that here.

NDX broke back over the daily middle band on Friday and that break needed to be confirmed with another close over that on the next trading day, and NDX failed to deliver that yesterday, which was a bearish development. NDX daily chart:
SPX almost retested the all time high yesterday and came close enough for that to be the second high of a decent quality double top setup. RSI still pointing firmly down of course and if we break double top support at 2430.74 then the second high being lower increases the odds that this might be another bull flag forming. Mainly direction is about NDX/NQ here though. SPX daily chart:
The ES and NQ futures charts below were done after the RTH close for Daily Video Service subscribers at theartofchart.net. If you are interested in trying our services a 30 day free trial is available here. I have updated the charts with prices up to when I started writing this post.

NQ broke both rising wedge support and the weekly pivot overnight, which was a serious sign of weakness and may mean that the main decline that we are looking for to 5641 and lower has already started. If weekly pivot at 5768 converts to resistance this morning then NQ is likely on the way to 5641 in the near future. NQ Sep 60min chart:
There is still a possible triangle setup on ES here where this decline from yesterday's highs is a backtest into the triangle before a thrust up into the all time high retest that we didn't quite see yesterday. A break below 2427/8 kills that triangle option and opens the downside. ES Sep 60min chart:
TF has slightly broken rising megaphone support and needs to break weekly pivot and double top support to open the likely retracement back to 1393. The numbers are on the chart. TF Sep 60min chart:
The main decline that we have been looking for may well now have started, but bears still have some work to do on the downside to preclude possible upside as part of topping patterns on SPX/ES & NDX/NQ. 70% odds here that we head directly lower from here IMO, and the most important numbers that I am watching this morning are the NQ weekly pivot at 5768 and ES support at 2427/8.

Stan and I are doing our monthly free public Chart Chat at theartofchart.net on Sunday and it looks like we'll have a lot to talk about. If you would like to attend you can register for that on our July Free Webinars page. I would also note that this week's edition of The Weekly Call is posted and that the model portfolio there is up 170% in the seven months to June 23rd, obviously well on course to make our target minimum 200% return over the first year. As and when that target is reached we're thinking of making the strategy there a bit less conservative. That's a free weekly service and if you trade futures I'd suggest adding it to your reading list.

Friday, 23 June 2017

Finally In The Inflection Point

Well here we are at last. NQ broke over last night's bull flag and NDX is trying to break over daily middle band resistance. NQ has reached the minimum bull flag target at 5815 and is in the inflection point that I've been looking for. On a break up from the inflection point we likely see all time high retests on NDX/NQ and SPX/ES. On the bear scenario here we see likely hard fails back into last week's lows, and likely continuation down from there. Price must decide which.

SPX has repeatedly held the daily middle band as support and may be starting a move up to a full retest of the all time high. SPX daily chart:
NDX is breaking over the daily middle band intraday. If the inflection point is going to resolve down NDX likely closes back under the daily middle band, though we could see a weak close above with a rejection instead of confirmation candle on Monday. NDX daily chart:
The ES and NQ futures charts below were done after the RTH close for Daily Video Service subscribers at theartofchart.net. If you are interested in trying our services a 30 day free trial is available here. I have updated the charts with prices up to when I started writing this post.

On ES there is a possible double bottom in place. On a sustained break over 2440.25 the target would be a minimum retest of the all time high. On a fail here we likely see a sustained break below 2430 area support. ES Sep 60min chart:
NQ broke up from the bull flag and made the target at 5815. This is either a double bottom breaking up towards a minimum target at a retest of the all time high, or it is a smaller double top within what I would call a Janus bear flag with a minimum target back at 5641. There is no real middle ground on this setup so it should be one or the other. NQ Sep 60min chart:
At the time of writing bears are trying to break this down and they may succeed, but I've been treating this as a coin toss on the direction of the break and am keeping an open mind. Price will decide.

Stan and I did a free educational webinar at theartofchart.net yesterday an hour after the close, and that was the third webinar in our Managing Risk series, subtitled 'Position Sizing, Trade and Money Money Management'. If you missed it and would liked to see the recording that is on our June Free Webinars page. Warning - there is math in this webinar :-) I would also note that this week's edition of The Weekly Call is posted and that the model portfolio there is up 178% in the seven months to May 19th, obviously well on course to make our target minimum 200% return over the first year. As and when that target is reached we're thinking of making the strategy there a bit less conservative. That's a free weekly service and if you trade futures I'd suggest adding it to your reading list.