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Friday, 28 April 2017

Some Technical Damage

Bears have dominated the day today, though that hasn't actually delivered a lot of downside on SPX or NDX. We may see a late rally into the close. Bigger picture this is day five of the daily upper band ride and if we see a weak close today and that follows through on Monday that would open a possible test of the daily middle band, currently at 2360. SPX daily chart:
The possible rising channel that I posted on Wednesday is still looking good. Channel support is now in the 2375 area, supported by the 50 hour MA at 2374. A break below channel support would be a significant technical break. SPX 60min chart:
The ES and NQ futures charts below were done before the open for Daily Video Service subscribers at theartofchart.net. The TF chart was done shortly after the RTH open. If you are interested in trying our services a 30 day free trial is available here.

On ES falling support is now in the 2375 area and is likely to cross SPX rising channel support on Monday morning. The 60min sell signal has now reached the possible near miss target. ES Jun 60min chart:
On NQ the initial rising wedge evolved into a rising channel and that rising channel has now broken down. The high on NQ could be in, but until we see a break down with more enthusiasm my working assumption is that the current high on NQ requires at least a retest. NQ Jun 60min chart:
On TF the 60min sell signal has made target and rising support is now in the 1393 area. That is a decent looking match with trendline support below on ES/SPX. These may require a test before any return to retest the highs. TF Jun 60min chart:
I think what we are seeing here is most likely what we call the low before the high, which is the last decline before a swing high is made. Some technical damage has been done, with SPX breaking below yesterday's low, and NQ breaking the rising channel. It could be that the swing high is already in, but until we see more evidence it's more likely that there is one last retest coming.

Thursday, 27 April 2017

Waiting For A Break

Yesterday opened and closed between the daily upper 2sd and 3sd upper bands, but that has changed today with the 2sd upper band established as resistance in the morning and afternoon. Today is day four of the daily upper band ride, which continues until a day when the daily 2sd upper band isn't tested as resistance. SPX daily chart:
The rising channel on my SPX hourly chart still looks good. Rising channel support is now in the 2370 area and a break below would likely signal that this swing high has been made. SPX 60min chart:
The setup on ES is still in the balance, but a clear H&S formed yesterday and overnight and broke down this morning. That H&S has failed and if we see a break over the 2389/90 I mentioned in the notes before the open as the ideal high for that H&S right shoulder, then the clear target would be a retest of yesterday's high. While that area is still holding as resistance though, it's possible that the right shoulder is forming now, and that the H&S setup here is still in play. ES Jun 60min chart:
ES, NQ and TF are all on 60min sell signals that fixed yesterday or this morning, with NDX and RUT still on daily RSI 14 sell signals. This setup could still very much resolve down, and on a break back below 2370 SPX this swing high might well be in.